Is our program REALLY making a difference? This question is deceptively simple. “Yes, of course…” and we share stories or output measurements like, “200 people attended the course,” or “92% completed the program.” Unfortunately, the simplicity of the concept belies its complexity in practice. Estimating the real effects of interventions is challenging work. The good news is there are accessible methods and software that can greatly improve how we evaluate our programs. In this series of posts, we will introduce the concept of counterfactuals and how our organizations can take steps toward improving our measurement of outcomes and impact. Before we get into counterfactuals and the potential outcome framework, let’s use a logic model to clarify terms. Logic models help define the relationship between our planned work and intended results. Inputs: Resources needed for program activities. Activities: Services or components of a program. Outputs: Direct result of activities. Outcomes: Intended…